If UEFA’s qualifying is the most complicated, South America’s is the densest. CONMEBOL has only ten nations, but the lowest ranked amongst them (per FIFA’s World Rankings) is Peru at 89. Sixteen nations in Europe fall below that threshold, while only eight of CONCACAF’s 35 teams sit above it. The South American region may not be as top-heavy as Europe’s, but there are no easy matches in CONMEBOL.

With the format calling for nations to play each other twice, the region’s depth makes for an long, arduous qualification process. With the first round taking place in October 2007, CONMEBOL’s World Cup qualifying will be two years old when it finishes this fall. By that time, four countries will have qualified for South Africa with a fifth having a chance through a two-legged playoff against CONCACAF’s fourth place team.

Were qualifying to end today, Uruguay would be that fifth place team. Paraguay, Brazil, Chile and Argentina currently occupy the top four spots.

The Paraguayans may lead the group, but Brazil has been the strongest team. They have only been beaten once, a 0-2 loss in Asunción in June of last year. Since then Brazil has won three times in six matches, giving up only one goal in the process.

The problem for the Brazilians is getting three points from their matches instead of one. In their twelve qualifiers they’ve drawn with their opponents six times, with four of those draws ending 0-0. They have the region’s best goal differential, fewest goals allowed and fewest losses yet trial Paraguay by three points.

The region’s other power, Argentina, are coming off an embarrassing 6-1 loss in Bolivia. It was Diego Maradona’s second match as coach, having replaced Alfio Basile after Argentina’s 1-0 loss to Chile in October. In his debut against Venezuela, Maradona led Argentina to a 4-0 victory, choosing to use Lionel Messi, Kün Agüero and Carlos Tevez in a three forward attack. Three days later in the altitude of La Paz, the Argentina that’s struggled to fourth in the group resurfaced, losing 6-1 to ninth-place Bolivia.

This weekend gives Argentina a chance to correct course when they host Colombia in Buenos Aires. Group leaders Paraguay welcome Chile to Asunción while Brazil plays in Montevideo against Uruguay. The other two matches feature the table’s bottom four countries, giving us license to concentrate on the three key fixtures:

Uruguay v. Brazil
Saturday, June 6, Montevideo

Seems every confederation has the story of the regional power and their one location where they can not seem to win. We heard a lot about this when the United States went to Costa Rica, a place they have never won a qualifier, but you would think a world power like Brazil would have no such stories. Brazil, however, has not won in Uruguay in 33 years.

Brazil beat Uruguay in Sao Paulo during Round 4 thanks to two Luís Fabíano goals. Fabíano will lead Dunga’s attack on Saturday, with Robinho likely joining him at forward. Together, the two Brazilian attackers are sufficient counterweight to Uruguay’s Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez. And of course there is Kaka, the brightest star on the pitch, who will be playing in Dunga’s midfield.

Despite Brazil’s stars in attack, they have been held scoreless in five of their twelve qualifiers. The talent at Dunga’s disposal has not translated into a cohesive, consistent attack, and while that lack of chemistry has not prevented Julio César, Juan and Lucio from locking up the back, keeping Uruguay’s Pichichi winner completely off the scoreboard may be the only way Brazil gets points in Montevideo.

Toward that end, Brazil will be helped by the absence of Uruguay’s star midfielder Cristian Rodriguez, who is suspended for this match (along with defender Diego Lugano). Rodriguez’s absence could be offset by an injury to Maicon. According to Dunga, his choice right back will make the trip to Montevideo, though it is yet to be determined whether he will play. Without the Internazionale star, Dunga would turn to Dani Alves, who missed the last weeks of Barcelona’s season with an ankle injury.

Even if Maicon played, winning in Montevideo would be a tall order for a team with a long history of failure in Uruguay. With the hosts having qualified for only one of the last four World Cups, Brazil will be facing a team highly motivated by the prospect of moving out of fifth place in the group into an automatic qualifying spot. With Chile having to face the table’s leaders, a win by the Uruguayans should move them into the top four by Sunday morning.

Paraguay v. Chile
Saturday, June 6, Asunción

Chile is the “really?” team amongst the region’s top five. Nobody doubts the quality of their team. It’s just strange to see them above both Argentina and Uruguay while realizing we are two-thirds of the way toward South Africa. Chile’s standing is all the more impressive when you consider they have already played their two matches against Argentina. They have also already played their two matches against Uruguay. While it may be surprising to see the Chileans above those two nations, the relative ease of their remaining qualifiers puts them on course to maintain a top four spot.

But given the difficulty inherent in a trip to Asunción, Chile could find themselves in fifth come Sunday morning. If Uruguay and Argentina both win their Saturday qualifiers, Chile will fall behind each of them unless they can get a point from the Paraguyans. Paraguay is yet to lose at home in qualifying, scoring 11 goals while allowing only one.

That imposing record is mitigated by a recent rash of injuries for Paraguay and coach Gerardo Martino. They will be without midfielder Edgar Barreto, defenders Darío Verón and Paulo da Silva, and striker Salvador Cabañas. All four players featured in the last rounds of qualifying in the spring. Choice striker Roque Santa Cruz, who has not appeared in a qualifier since September, will also miss the Chile match.

Although Chile’s leading goal scorer Humberto Suazo is a doubt with an ankle problem, Marcelo Bielsa has few injury concerns. He should take a full squad to Asunción, trying to avenge the November’s 3-0 loss to Paraguay in Santiago. Without Suazo, victory against Paraguay – even a depleted Paraguayan side – will be difficult, but with the hosts missing the men responsible for all their goals in Santiago (Cabañas, da Silva), the Chileans have reason to be optimistic.

Argentina v. Colombia
Saturday, June 6, Buenos Aires

Argentina has had two months to think about what happened in La Paz. Seeing Argentina lose 6-1 to Bolivia is shock enough, but if you can remember the excitement surrounding the team in the days before the loss, the result is more striking.

Four days earlier, Diego Maradona made his coaching debut, electing to play all of Messi, Agüero and Tévez together (something Basile was reluctant to do). The result was a dynamic 4-0 victory of Venezuela, with each of the star attackers recording a goal. The excitement of that win, the crescendo to Maradon’a arrival, was squelched four days later when Bolivia equalled the largest win ever over Argentina in World Cup qualifying. Whereas the Maradona hiring went from interesting to genius after Venezuela, La Paz had the Argentines wondering what they had gotten themselves into.

The altitude of La Paz had Maradona shift back to two attackers, moving his future son-in-law (Agüero) out of the starting XI. Returning home to face Colombia, Maradona will go back to the three-pronged attack. Though the visitors see Internazionale defender Ivan Cordoba return to the team after a two year absence, Colombia seems to be in the wrong place and the wrong time – matched against an Argentina team that will be eager to dispel La Paz.

Colombia’s biggest problem in qualifying has been scoring goals. Having only scored six times, they are tied with last place Peru for lowest goal total in qualification. The next lowest goal total is fourteen (Ecuador and Venezuela). Right back Rubén Darío Bustos leads the team with two goals. Wigan Athletic’s Hugo Rodallega (one goal) is a need of a strike partner, with River Plate striker Radamel Falcao García slated to get his turn.

Though Columbia defeated Argentina earlier in qualifying, it is difficult to see Eduardo Lara’s team giving Los Albicelestes trouble. Columbia does not have enough in attack to make Maradona pay for his ambitious formation.

Richard Farley is a U.S.-based contributor to World Soccer Reader, focusing on the English Premier League and Spain’s La Liga. He also hosts WSR Radio, the site’s regular podcast. He can be reached at richardfarley at gmail dot com and followed on Twitter, username “richardfarley.” Richard also hosts a regular (if informal) podcast at pointoneohradio.com.

Make sure you subscribe to our RSS feed and follow us on Twitter to get the latest breaking news and analysis!