When UEFA qualifying for World Cup 2010 restarts on Friday, the world’s deepest confederation will take another step towards selecting the thirteen teams which will represent Europe in South Africa.

Netherlands has a chance to finish qualification, four months before the final group matches. They need only win one of their two matches to win Group 9. Germany and England could join them, though they need help from others in their groups.

Amongst the bigger nations struggling, Portugal and the Czech Republic will each need help if they are to return to the World Cup.

Because of the size of UEFA’s confederation, Europe has the most complicated qualifying format. Here’s the quick explanation:

Take the 53 national teams, order them by their FIFA World Ranking, and split them into six “Pots” of nine teams (the last group has only eight), where the nine highest teams are in Pot A, the next nine in Pot B, and so on. Draw one team from each Pot into each of nine different groups. Within those groups, each country plays the other twice, home and away, and the group’s winner goes to South Africa. That takes care of nine of Europe’s 13 spots.

The four remaining spots from the region are awarded to the winners of single-match playoffs that take place between eight of the nine second place group finishers. The second place-finisher left out of the playoff is the one with the worst record against the top five teams in its group. The eight teams that qualify for the playoff are draw into four matches, the winner of each going to South Africa.

And exhale. If you still have questions, leave a comment and I will respond.

While not exactly a “Beginner’s Guide to”, here’s a “What the Heck Has Been Happening” rundown of UEFA World Cup Qualifying, as it stands today:

Team	GP	Pts
Denmark	5	13
Hungary	6	13
Sweden	4	6
Portugal	5	6
Albania	7	6
Malta	7	1

Upcoming Matches
Saturday, June 6
Sweden v. Denmark (Solna)
Albania v. Portugal (Tirana)
Wednesday, June 10
Sweden v. Malta (Gothenberg)

Group 1

The Favorite – Portugal was the Pot A draw into this group and looked to have an easy time of it when one of the weaker Pot B nations, Sweden, was drawn into Group 1. Two scoreless draws with Sweden and a shock loss in Lisbon to Denmark has made Carlos Quieroz’s start (after replacing Luiz Felipe Scolari) a failure. With two matches remaining against Hungary, there is time to comeback, but they must avoid further slip-ups in addition to getting six points from their games against Hungary. If those things don’t happen, Cristiano Ronaldo will not be in South Africa.

The Leader – In September, Denmark posted a shock 3-2 over Portugal in Lisbon, scoring goals in the 84th, 90th, and 92nd minutes. With second-place Hungary and group favorite Portugal yet to play each other, the three points in Lisbon loom large. A series of draws could get them into the playoff, but if they take care of business against Albania in September and find a win against Sweden (who they play two more times) or Hungary (once more), Denmark will win this group.

The Follower(s) – For second-place Hungary, it’s bad news, good news. Bad news is that they have no more matches against Albania or Malta. Good news is that their tough finishing schedule allows them to control their own destiny. Both Portugal and Sweden (in September) have to beat them to stay alive. Any win by the Hungarians during those three matches could mean the end for the group’s top two-rated nations. Whereas initial evaluations had Portugal and Sweden as the toughest teams in this group, neither look likely for South Africa.

Key Match – The only match of interest in the next slate of qualifiers is Denmark’s trip to Sweden. With Portugal and Hungary facing each other twice this summer, it’s a must-win match for the Swedes. For the Danes, three points plus an expected win against Albania would all but book their place in South Africa.

Prognosis – Sweden gets a point from Denmark and after beating Malta. The Swedes finish the week three points back of Hungary and one point ahead of Portugal after the Portuguese beat Albania.

Team	GP	Pts
Greece	6	13
Switzerland	6	13
Latvia	6	10
Israel	6	9
Luxembourg	6	4
Moldova	6	1

Upcoming Matches
None until August

Group 2

The Favorite – Greece was the top-rated team in this Group based on their winning result at Euro 2004, a suprise victory at the time that looks all the more improbably in light of what happened at Euro 2008. The Greeks drew one of the weaker teams in Pot B, Israel, making this the unquestioned weakest qualifying group. You could make the argument that none of these nations would qualify for South Africa were they drawn into any other group. As is, one will qualify and another could be one game away from the trip.

The Leader – While I slam the Greeks on one hand, it’s worth noting they do lead this group in goals scored with 12, a surprising note considering how inept they looked attacking in the lead-up to qualifying. That they are the stingiest nation in allowing goals was to be expected. That they have found a way to two goals per match takes a bit of the frustration out of their yellow brick road to South Africa. Their only loss was to Switzerland, though they lead the Switz on differential.

The Follower(s) – The same Switzerland team that won 2-1 in Greece inexplicably lost 2-1 to Luxembourg in Zurich a month before. They also drew with Israel in Ramat Gan. Schizophrenic as that may seem, Switzerland is even on points with the group leaders and still have home matches against their main competition.

Team	GP	Pts
Northern Ireland	7	13
Slovakia	5	12
Poland	6	10
Czech Republic	6	8
Slovenia	6	8
San Marino	6	0

Upcoming Matches
Saturday, June 6
Slovakia v. San Marino (Bratislava)

Group 3

The Favorite – The Czech Republic have not recovered since Petr Cech laid out that cross for the Turks at Euro 2008. With only eight points from six matches in a group they should be dominating, the Czechs have been as disappointing as Portugal. They have fallen to fifteenth in FIFA’s World Rankings (for what that’s worth).

The Leader – Northern Ireland is atop the group, but Slovakia is really leading. They sit one point back with two matches in hand, already having wins against Northern Ireland, Poland, and in the Czech Republic. Bochum’s Stanislav Šesták has four goals, putting the nation’s first ever World Cup qualification in sight.

The Follower(s) – Northern Ireland seems like the logical choice after Slovakia, but seeing trips to Poland and the Czech Republic bookending a match with Slovakia as their closing match list hints at the relative ease of their opening fixtures. The Czech Republic and Poland, with one more match against each other, will each have a chance to track down Northern Ireland, though all three seem unlikely to trip-up the Slovaks.

Key Match – That one.

Prognosis – Slovakia will move to the head of the group after beating San Marino. They will still have one game in hand. Sitting seven points ahead of the Czech Republic, they will force the pre-qualifying favorite to adjust their goals and focus on the second place, playoff spot.

Team	GP	Pts
Germany	6	16
Russia	5	12
Finland	4	7
Wales	6	6
Azerbaijan	4	1
Liechtenstein	5	1

Upcoming Matches
Saturday, June 6
Azerbaijan v. Wales (Baku)
Finland v. Liechtenstein (Helsinki)
Wednesday, June 10
Finland v. Russia (Helsinki)

Group 4

The Favorite – The Germans were the highest rated team during the draw, tough Russia’s performance at Euro 2008 had many wondering if Guus Hiddink’s team couldn’t take this group. Regardless, this group has as clear a one-two as any of UEFA’s nine pods. Finland and Wales can be frisky, but it would be a shock if either made the playoff.

The Leader – The Germans took control of the group with a 2-1 win over Russian in their first qualifier. Their surprise 3-3 draw in Finland means the Russians can still win this group should they beat Germany in October’s Moscow rematch. Until then, it’s up to each team to win out to maintain hopes of qualifying without a playoff.

The Follower(s) – Russia would technically be a follower, but we’ve covered them. Finland, having already drawn with Germany earlier in qualifying, can further influence the big two when they host the Russians on Wednesday. That leads us too …

Key Match – Finland took the lead three times against Germany on September 10 only to have Miroslav Klose pull the Germans back each time. The Russians, however, are a much more difficult match-up for the Fins, who will have more trouble with the fluidity of Guss Hiddink’s approach than the direct physicality of the Germans. If the Russians do take three from the Fins, they will be one win in Moscow (an no slip-ups) away from automatic qualification.

Prognosis – Russia wins in Helsinki, all but mathematically eliminating everybody but Germany and Russia.

Team	GP	Pts
Spain	6	18
Bosnia and Herzegovina	6	12
Turkey	6	8
Belgium	6	7
Estonia	6	5
Armenia	6	1

Upcoming Matches
None until August

Group 5

The Favorite – As they showed at Euro 2008 and indirectly affirmed with Barcelona’s win in UEFA Champions League, right now in the soccer world, there’s Spain and there’s everybody else. The distance between Spain and the second-ranked nation in FIFA’s World Rankings (the Netherlands) is greater than the distance between the Netherlands and the number nine nation, Russia.

The Leader – Spain is one of three nations to post a perfect record in qualifying, extending their international unbeaten streak to 32 matches, breaking the record Spain currently shares with Argentina (1991-1993) and Hungary (1950-1954). David Villa leads the team with five goals, though no other Spaniard has scored more than one. The closest they came to drawing was April 1 in Istanbul when a stoppage time goal from Albert Riera was needed to defeat Turkey.

The Follower(s) – The remaining drama of the group centers on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s attempts to hold-off Euro 2008 semifinalist Turkey. Turkey is done with their matches against Spain while Bosnia will host the Spaniards on the group’s last match day. With club season having started by that time and Spain to be mathematically locked atop the group, the Bosnians may face a weakened Spanish side, against whom they would only be a slight (not pronounced) underdogs.

Team	GP	Pts
England	5	15
Croatia	5	10
Ukraine	4	7
Belarus	4	6
Kazakhstan	5	3
Andorra	5	0

Upcoming Matches
Saturday, June 6
Kazakhstan v. England (Almaty)
Belarus v. Andorra (Grodno)
Croatia v. Ukraine (Zagreb)
Wednesday, June 10
Ukraine v. Kazakhstan (Kiev)
England v. Andorra (London)

Group 6

The Favorite – The Croatians started qualifying as the group favorites, having handled England in Euro 2008 qualifying in addition to putting on a strong showing in the Championships. A year later, that favorite status has faded. Now Slaven Bilic’s team is more concerned with holding off the Ukraine for the playoff spot than tracking down England for the group’s lead.

The Leader – England is the second perfect team in UEFA’s qualifying. With this week’s matches against Kazakhstan and Andorra, the Three Lions hope to have one of the top two spots locked up by Wednesday night. Fabio Capello has taken a team that failed to qualify for the last Euro and moved them to sixth in the world. We had gotten so used to mediocre and disappointing performances from the English. It’s strange to have to consider them as a legitimate footballing power. Again.

The Follower(s) – Croatia is still the second best team in this group, but they could find themselves out of the playoff spot with one more slip. Their draw in Kharkiv last October helps, but they must get at least a point on Saturday; else, they will have to reclaim a point in their September trip to London in order to clinch the playoff berth.

Key Match – For the Ukraine to beat Croatia, they need to find more goal scorers. Only two players, Andriy Shevchenko and Serhiy Nazarenko, have scored in qualifying. Andriy Voronin, despite eleven goals in twenty league appearances for Hertha Berlin in the Bundesliga, finds himself often out of the starting XI, playing understudy to Sheva. He did start the Ukraine’s last qualifier at Wembley only to be taken off at 56′. Unwillingness to keep their better goal scorers on the pitch not only goes a long way to explaining whey the Ukranians have only five goals in four qualifiers, it also hints at why Croatia should affirm second place after Saturday’s match.

Prognosis – Ukraine’s hopes of qualifying are put back on life support with win over Kazakhstan, but a Croatia win on Saturday combined with two more wins for England helps calcify the group’s pecking order.

Team	GP	Pts
Serbia	5	12
France	5	10
Lithuania	6	9
Austria	5	7
Romania	5	4
Faroe Islands	4	1

Upcoming Matches
Saturday, June 6
Lithuania v. Romania (Marijampole)
Serbia v. Austria (Belgrade)
Wednesday, June 10
Faroe Islands v. Serbia (Tórshavn)

Group 7

The Favorite – France was the group’s favorite out of the draw, but like Greece, their performance at Euro 2008 gave onlookers reason for doubt. Further distorting the picture has been the French Football Federation’s loyalty to Raymond Domenech, retained after the Euro disaster despite public discontent from his players. Improbably, Domenech has rewarded the federation’s loyalty with a strong qualifying run in UEFA’s deepest group. Funny what you can do with players like Franck Ribery.

The Leader – Serbia’s +7 goal differential is six better than the group’s next-best performers, France and Lithuania. The Serbs have been led by Nemanja Vidic at the back, but their strength has been in a surprisingly resourceful attack that has twelve goals, the leader being Chelsea’s Branislav Ivanovic with three.

The Follower(s) – Despite their turmoil and a start to qualifying that saw them lose 3-1 in Austria, France has reimmerged as the group favorites. Romania on the other hand, the team that was supposed to pick up the favorite’s mantle, has only been able to defeat the Faroe Islands, allowing 10 goals in their other four matches. Their last two qualifiers have been losses to Serbia and Austria in which they’ve given up a combined five goals.

Key Match – Both Saturday matches are important. Lithuania needs to beat Romania to maintain a legitimate threat to France for the playoff spot, while Serbia needs to keep winning to stay atop the group. The Serbs have that long trip to the Faroes on Wednesday, but if they can defeat the Austrians (who they beat 3-1 in Vienna on October 15), they will all-but eliminate Austria while maintaining pressure on the French.

Prognosis – Serbia picks up six points while Lithuania bounces back from two, consecutive, 1-0 losses to France.

Team	GP	Pts
Italy	6	14
Republic of Ireland	6	12
Bulgaria	5	7
Cyprus	5	4
Montenegro	5	3
Georgia	7	3

Upcoming Matches
Saturday, June 6
Bulgaria v. Republic of Ireland (Sofia)
Cyprus v. Montenegro (Larnaca)

Group 8

The Favorite – The defending world champions were drawn into an easy group, with none of their opponents having qualified for either the last World Cup or Euro 2008. This gave the Italians a chance to reorganize after a disappointing Euro, rehiring World Cup-winning coach Marcello Lippi. With that buffer of qualifiers against relatively non-threatening sides, Lippi has reestablished Italy as a country that can win any international match.

The Leader – Under Lippi, the Azzurri have yet to lose in qualifying, with their only blemishes being draws against Bulgaria and Ireland. Having allowed only three goals while scoring nine, it has been decisive if unspectacular soccer from the Italians. Although they would temporarily fall into second place should the Irish win on Saturday, Lippi and his team have complete control of the group. They have never trailed in this group’s play.

The Follower(s) – Cyprus could still make some noise, but the fight for second place is going to come down to Ireland and Bulgaria. The two met in Dublin on March 28, where a Kevin Kilbane own goal cancelled out Richard Dunne’s opening minute tally. Ireland would go on to make up a lost point on April 1 when a late Robbie Keane goal equalized against Italy, but had the Irish held off Bulgaria on the 28th, this group would be dusted.

Key Match – On Saturday, Geovanni Trapattoni’s squad will have a chance to finish the job they started in Dublin. If they win, they will go up eight points on the Bulgarians. With a loss, Bulgaria closes the gap to two (with a game in hand). It would help Ireland if they could find a goal scorer besides Robbie Keane. The Spurs forward has four of the team’s seven qualifying goals. For Bulgaria, Though Dimitar Berbatov and Martin Petrov missed the match in Dublin, both are expected to play on Saturday.

Prognosis – Bulgaria stays five back of Ireland with a draw, letting Cyprus close to within one after defeating Montenegro.

Team	GP	Pts
Netherlands	5	15
Scotland	5	7
Iceland	5	4
FYR Macedonia	4	3
Norway	3	2

Upcoming Matches
Saturday, June 6
FYR Macedonia v. Norway (Skopje)
Iceland v. Netherlands (Reykjavik)
Wednesday, June 10
FYR Macedonia v. Iceland (Skopje)
Netherlands v. Norway (Rotterdam)

Group 9

The Favorite – The final unblemished side in qualifying is the Netherlands. Scotland, Iceland, and Norway can be troublesome squads, particularly away from home, but in avoiding one of the stronger Pot B teams while also drawing the five team group, the Dutch drew a short, easy path to South Africa.

The Leader – The draw’s result has the Netherlands with five wins in five matches, having allowed only one goal while scoring twelve. A win in either of this week’s matches will clinch their spot in World Cup 2010. They have had seven different goal scorers in their five matches, with Klaas-Jan Huntelaar and Dirk Kuyt each accumulating three goals.

The Follower(s) – Despite trying to give the rest of the group a head-start with their opening loss at Macedonia, Scotland has moved into second place. They have taken both games against third place Iceland and have gotten one of their two matches with the Netherlands out-of-the-way. The one team that is done with the Netherlands, Macedonia, has the best chance to edge-out the Scots, especially if they can win one match this week ahead of their September 5 trip to Glasgow.

Key Match – None. With the Netherlands having all but clinched this group and Scotland not playing, there is no particularly important match. If Macedonia wins both their matches, they will move ahead of Scotland with nine points, having already beat them once. Both of their matches are key, though it’s hard to say one is more critical than the other.

Prognosis – The Netherlands wins twice, Norway draws with Macedonia, and Macedonia beats Iceland. This pushes Iceland and Norway to the bottom of the group, out of contention, while Macedonia climbs even with Scotland (having played one more match).

Richard Farley is a U.S.-based contributor to World Soccer Reader, focusing on the English Premier League and Spain’s La Liga. He also hosts WSR Radio, the site’s regular podcast. He can be reached at richardfarley at gmail dot com and followed on Twitter, username “richardfarley.” Richard also hosts a regular (if informal) podcast at pointoneohradio.com.

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About Richard Farley

Richard Farley is a U.S.-based contributor to World Soccer Reader. He also hosts Inside the Six, the site's regular podcast. He can be reached at richardfarley at gmail dot com and followed on Twitter, username "richardfarley." And while you are at it, feel free to check out RF Football.