Tonight, Estudiantes and Cruzeiro enter the second leg of the Copa Libertadores final coming off an uninspiring opener in La Plata. Cruzeiro was notably less ambitious than they had been in the knock-out stage’s preceding matches, a sign of respect for an opponent that posted a 4-0 victory the last time Cruzeiro went to Estadio Unico. As a result, Cruzeiro takes the small advantages of the draw home for the tournament’s ultimate match.

The first leg’s lack of goals, control, or a win from Estudiantes has spawned a trepidatious furor in Argentina. While it’s become accepted that a 0-0 opener favors the result’s road team, Estudiantes could be in a far worse situation. If they after behind at all, it’s not by much.

We’re accustomed to a 0-0 draw at home being a setback in a two-legged tie, but Copa Libertadores sets that paradigm on its ear by ditching the away goal rules in its final. At every other level of the knockout stage, away goals is used. Moving away from it at the final brings a confusion that might be influencing this paranoia, a confusion from which I am not immuned. Even though I’ve been avidly following this tournament, I forgot about this change during the Libertadores segment of this weekend’s podcast.

Because there is no away goals rule, the circumstances of Estudiantes and Cruzeiro barely changed from last week’s match. Estudiantes may have to make-up a slight deficit in circumstances, but that was the case before last week’s kickoff. Cruzeiro won the group the clubs shared, was the higher seed in the knockout phase, and has performed more convincingly against better competition over the last two months. Cruzeiro should have always been favored, if only slightly.

Argentina’s coverage of Estudiantes’ perceived deficit has gone from perplexed disappointment (in the days after the match) to a seeming bolstering of egos in the days before today’s fixture. An article widely distributed in the Argentine media last Wednesday night noted that Estudiantes, without control of the match or goals, was now full of doubts, seeming hyperbole given the match ended in a draw. In recent days, the same media has been quick to pick up and amplify seemingly innocuous quotes from Cruzeiro personnel describing Estudiantes as a dangerous and capable opponent – the type of quotes that are practically obligatory in these situations.

These reactions are disproportionate but understandable, for a number of reasons:

History

Estudiantes has not been to the final of the Copa Lib since 1971. Back then they lost to Uruguay’s Nacíonal in their effort to retain the tournament’s title for a fourth straight season. That loss ended an era and caused a relative drought that extended for thirty-five years. In that time, they won Argentina’s national tournament, a competition staged twice per annum, only twice times.

That span of relative futility has ended with the return of Juan Sebastián Verón, whose return to Argentina and Estudiantes in 2006 led to an Apertura title, the clubs first tournament title in 23 seasons. Estudiantes has two other top three finishes since the title, further wetting the appetites of supporters for more titles.

High Expectations

Beyond history and the recent turn in fortunes, the talent on the squad has lead to high expectations. Juan Sebastián Verón is considered by many to be the second best player on the continent (behind Riquelme). Attacking midfielder Leandro Benitez arrived with Verón and has been has attacking counterpart in midfielder during this period of resurgence. They support Mauro Boselli, a 24-year-old striker who came from Boca last season and has come into own through this tournament. At the back, Leandro Desabato maintains a strong back line in front of Mariano Andújar, who has all the tools to be a world-class keeper.

Impending Exodus

Andújar is already signed to move to Catania after the tournament, where he will ply his trade in the Serie A. He won’t be the only pincha to leave. Both Benitez and Boselli have been linked with jumps to Europe. Combined with Verón’s climbing age (he turned 34 in March), this may be Estudiantes best chance to regain the Copa before having to reload.

Previous Result

Estudiantes routed Cruzeiro in La Plata during group play, and while they were similarly routed in Belo Horizonte in the preceding, reverse fixture, getting only a 0-0 draw last Wednesday is caused worry. You can’t help but wonder if the other team has your number when they can flip a switch and get their desired result. Question Cruzeiro’s desire for a draw, but don’t question their ability to get it. Estudiantes should be concerned that they were not able to accomplish their goal while Cruzeiro accomplished theirs.

Argentina versus Brazil

Do not forget that Estudiantes and Cruzeiro represent the continent’s two dominant national powers, between whom there is a volatile dynamic. Argentina is home for possibly the best active player (Lionel Messi), the game’s best player of all-time (Maradona) and has won eight more Copa Libertadores than Brazil, yet Argentina still rests in the relative international shadow of Brazil. Such is the power of World Cup success and good marketing. Pele overshadows Maradona, Kaka’s image may still be more commercially viable than Messi’s, and Estudiantes just ceded the advantage in Copa Lib to some Brazilians.

You can’t blame Argentines for being a bit tired of this storyline, especially with a critical World Cup qualifier against the Selecão coming next month.

For all the reasons why Estudiantes and their supporters are particularly anxious about tonight’s match, there is an assumption that bears further examination. That assumption: Estudiantes, in a 0-0 tie going into tonight’s match, is in a relatively bad position. The history of this competition disagrees with that assumption.

There have been eleven instances in Copa Libertadores finals where the first leg ended 0-0. In five of those instances, the team that played the first match at home won the title. That’s just below fifty percent, and keeping in mind that nature of the competition gives the home pitch advantage to the team that performed better throughout the tournament, it’s an explicable result.

That sample of eleven matches is small, but if you look at the last five competitions and examine all knock-out stage ties (not just the finals), there are four times the second leg’s away side “overcame” a 0-0 opening draw to win the tie on the road. Again, that’s just under half the time.

Perhaps there is some 0-0, away team bogey there, but a more likely explanation is that the better team is winning these ties, and the home team happens to be the better team half (or a little more than half) the time. If Estudiantes is the better team, they can overcome this setback. If they are not, they don’t deserve to.

The best way Estudiantes can go about proving their superiority is by maintaining their shape at the back. Estudiantes has allowed only one goal in their last seven Libertadores matches thanks to the back line’s a high degree of organization. This was evident last week as Leandro Desabato and Rolando Schiavi could not be drawn out of the back by Kléber’s dropping back or Ramires coming in from the wing. If Cruzeiro does not provide more pressure, Estudiantes will be able to maintain this organization indefinitely.

Based on Cruzeiro’s approach to last week’s match, we can assume they will be more ambitious tonight. The Brazilians exhibited a lack of urgency endemic to the first leg’s road team. Returning home to the Belo Horizonte, Cruzeiro will give Estudiantes’ defense their staunchest test since February, when the pinchas lost 3-0 at Minierão. Tactically, Cruzeiro may need to bring Wagner back to the middle and rely on Ramires for their width, but even if their tactics are unchanged, Raposa change of attitude is likely to test Estudiantes.

Cruzeiro had scored two or more goals in five of their six knockout stage matches before last week. Although shutting them out in a second consecutive match is possible, Estudiantes has to anticipate needing a goal. This will make Juan Sebastian Verón, their most renown player, also their most important. Verón, the club’s captain, will not only need to be a strong presence in front of the center backs (along with Rodrigo Braña), his distribution to Benitez, Enzo Perez and Gaston Fernandez will determine how capable Estudiantes will be in taking advantage of Cruzeiro’s ambition.

Their is little from last week’s match in La Plata that leads us to think Estudiantes’ attack will be more successful than they were last week. Fabio did have a good match in net for Cruzeiro, but Estudiantes does not have Raposa’s skill in the finish. That may be augmented by tactics, as Cruzeiro is likely to open up their approach. That could lead to more opportunities for Estudiantes off the counter, the type of opportunities they did not have to generate a week ago. With their defense, Estudiantes may need only one goal, so if they can take advantage of Cruzeiro’s backs pushing forward, they could generate opportunities up the wing (through Benitez) a get the critical opening goal what will allow them to bunker down.

That path to the title is a lot thinner than Cruzeiro’s, who need only play to their capabilities. If the home side uses the creativity of Kléber and Wagner to distribute wide from the middle, they can stretch Estudiantes’ form at the back and generate opportunities. It’s not an approach that’s likely to have a high success rate, but it will pin Estudiantes deep as midfielders are forced into reinforcing the middle against crosses. That will prevent Estudiantes from breaking out, give Cruzeiro more possession, and increase the likelihood of one of their attacks eventually getting through Andújar.

Given Cruzeiro were able to accomplish their goals last week, they should be considered favorites to do the same tonight, where their goal will be to win, not draw.

Richard Farley is a U.S.-based contributor to World Soccer Reader, focusing on the English Premier League and Spain’s La Liga. He also hosts WSR Radio, the site’s regular podcast. He can be reached at richardfarley at gmail dot com and followed on Twitter, username “richardfarley.” Richard also hosts a regular (if informal) podcast at pointoneohradio.com.

Make sure you subscribe to our RSS feed to get the latest breaking news and analysis!