There are only a few hours left before the Copa Libertadores final kicks off in La Plata, Argentina. If you are unsure whether to devote time to the match, let me eliminate one excuse. You may ultimately decide you don’t care about South America’s club soccer championship, but after you read my plea, your decision won’t be made from ignorance.

Unfortunately, the biggest news leading up to this tie has been another H1N1 threat. Argentina has recently been hit by an H1N1 outbreak that has claimed 44 lives. This caused Cruzeiro to express reservations about traveling to La Plata for tonight’s opening leg. The Brazilian side requested a postponement or relocation. On Monday, it was announced Cruzeiro’s request had been rejected. The first leg goes on as scheduled, but the match has been overshadowed by the reservations of Cruzeiro’s player about traveling to Argentina during the outbreak. Whether the concerns are warranted, they have unfortunately but only temporarily distracted from the culmination of a great tournament.

Last season’s final featured Brazilian’s Fluminense against Ecuador’s LDU Quito. At the time the stories of Fluminense’s Thiago Neves and Ecaudor possibly winning the country’s first continental club title helped inject the necessary majesty into the tournament. In hindsight, however, last year’s competition seems anti-climactic. LDU eventually won on penalty kicks and took the Copa back to Quito while Flu would struggle in form all year, helping hindsight revise our view of the final.

This year features a traditional Brazil-Argentina match-up. An Argentine club has won this competition nineteen times. Brazilian clubs have thirteen championships to their credit. As would be expected, these countries are the dominant presences in the continent’s club football. This year’s final has that rivalry’s added drama augmenting a match already rife with stories.

Unlike Copa Libertadores’ analog competition in Europe, this final’s to be settled over two legs. Tonight’s match in La Plata sees Estudiantes de la Plata host Brazil’s Cruzeiro. Estudiantes got here by defeating Urugayan champions Nacíonal 3-1 in one semifinal. Cruziero eliminated fellow Brazilian-side Grêmio, going up 5-1 before ultimately registering a 5-3 aggregate victory.

The match features teams who were drawn together in the competition’s group stage. After next week’s second leg in Belo Horizonte, Estudiantes and Cruzeiro will have played four times in the Copa. Cruzeiro hosted Estudiantes to open the the club’s group stage, winning 3-0 at the Estádio Uníco in February thanks to two goals from star forward Kléber. April’s second leg in La Plata saw Estudiantes one-up their guest with a 4-0 victory. Matías Sánchez scored twice, with captain and figurehead Juan Sebástian Verón also posting a goal.

Because Estudiantes stumbled within group play to Deportivo Quito (who finished third the group), Cruziero would go on to win Group 5 and gain the higher seed in the 16-team knockout phase. For Estudiantes, a team that barely qualified for the tournament, advancing was enough. They were the last of five teams to qualify from Argentina, getting the counrty’s last birth based on their average performance in the three preceding Argentine seasons. That birth did not get them into the tournament proper. To advance, they would have to defeat Peru’s Sporting Cristal in a two-legged preliminary tie. Estudiantes lost the first leg 2-1 in Lima but went through on away goals after winning 1-0 in La Plata.

Close calls in the preliminary round and group stage were offset by an easy knockout stage draw. There are exceptions to this rule, but if you can avoid being drawn against the Brazilian and Argentine clubs, you have half of your tournament’s plan for success. Thanks to their strong goal differential in Group 5, Estudiantes were seeded a tenth out of the sixteen teams that advanced from group play (teams were seeded by group finish, points, then goal differential).

That seed matched Estudiantes with Libertad of Paraguay in the Round of 16. Estudiantes took the steam out of that tie with a 3-0 win in the first leg. A scoreless second leg sent them through to the quarters, where they matched-up against Uruguay’s Defensor. Defensor was coming off the upset of the tournament, having eliminated Argentine powerhouse and Boca Juniors in the previous round. Two 1-0 wins over the fifteenth seed put Estudiantes into the semis.

Cruzeiro earned the bracket’s fifth seed out of group stage yet had the tougher knockout route. Grêmio was the tournament’s top seed and had not lost in ten Copa matches before facing Cruzeiro. In the quarters, Cruzeiro similarly dominated São Paulo, the three-time defending Serie A champions from Brazil. In the round of 16, Cruzeiro beat Universidad de Chile, who were this week crowned Chilean Apertura champions. As impressive as the route Cruzeiro took to get to the final is the way in which they traveled. Only once in their six knockout stage matches have they been held under two goals (the second leg against Universidad).

Though he has only two of those knockout stage goals (which number 12 in all), Cruzeiro’s most dangerous player is Kléber. The former Dynamo Kiev star returned to Brazil last year on a season long loan to Palmeiras. He made a permanent move to Cruzeiro before this season and has been central to the uptick in Raposa’s form that has seen them build a seven match win streak within Copa. Kléber is ostensibly the second striker to Wellington Paulista’s more traditional number nine but is often found coming deep into midfield to help link between Paulista and Cruzeiro’s other star, midfielder Wagner.

Matching up with that attack, Estudiantes’ strength lies in defense. They limited Nacíonal to only one solid chance over the 180 minute semifinal. The goal, a consolation tally conceded after Estudiantes had a 2-0 aggregate lead (and a road goals advantage) in the second half of the final leg, was the first the Argentine club had allowed in the knockout stage. For the tournament, they have allowed only five goals in twelve matches.

Leandro Desábato, who took Verón’s armband when the captain could not play the semifinals’ second leg in Montevideo, leads the defense from his center back spot. Verón’s role distributing from deep, helping to link from a defensive zone from which Cruzeiro will likely control the match, will be critical, but although the former Manchester United and Chelsea midfielder will gets more press, his role in this tie is less important than Desábato’s. For an Estudiantes defense that has remained remarkably organized throughout the tournament, Desábato is the leader. The thirty-year-old veteran (in his second tour of duty and eighth year with Estudiantes) provides a physical presence to a back line that will again be tested by the Brazilians. Of the five goals they have allowed in the tournament, Cruzeiro scored three in one match.

The biggest star at the back for Estudiantes is Mariano Andújar. The 25-year-old goaltender was recently recalled to the Argentine national team, starting the last two World Cup qualifiers, performing admirably for an uninspiring squad. After this tournament, Andújar will be moving to Italy’s Serie A, where he has signed a four-year deal for Catania. At 6′ 4″ but with the wingspan or a man three inches taller, Andújar can cover goal at a world-class level. In his decisions you see somebody who lacks the finishing top-level experience provides. To this point in the tournament, Andújar has been more than capable of overcoming that deficiency. In his World Cup qualifying experience and in this final, he will start gathering the experience he’s been lacking.

If Desábato can maintain Estudiantes’ organization, he will limit the need for Andújar to dominate. However, it may be too great a task to ask Estudiantes’ back line to completely shut down the potent Cruzeiro attack. It is also reasonable to expect Andújar to steal the show (although it could happen). Estudiantes shut out Cruzeiro the last time the Brazilians came to La Plata, but with Cruzeiro playing better football now than they did months ago, Estudiantes must plan on getting two, three goals over these two legs if they are to win. Regardless, look for Estudiantes to play conservative and look for Verón to break them out into attack.

That is where Mauro Boselli comes in. Boselli is the lead striker for Estudiantes and the tournament’s leading goal scorer. With his two goals in Montevideo to close out Nacíonal, Boselli is up to six goals in the competition. Resourceful and efficient, he is more than capable of getting two goals during the final; however, it is key that Estudiantes find him rather than settling for half-changes through supporting attackers. Second striker Gastón Fernández was wasteful in many opportunities against Nacíonal and was the reason why that tie was in a small amount of doubt midway through the second leg’s second half. Estudiantes staying organized at the back and getting strong distribution from Verón to Boselli and attacking midfielder Leandro Benítez could overcome such wastefulness.

That scenario and the group stage results not withstanding, Cruzeiro is the favorite. The addition of Kléber to the attack has provided a perfect complement to Wagner. Each do a great job of both distributing the ball wide and creating through the middle while playing at distinct levels of the attack. This ability to distribute and the various depths from which they can build their attacks, could force Estudiantes to break their line, creating space for Wellington.

If that happens, it is difficult to imagine Estudiantes winning the final; however, if Desábato leads a strong back line and Verón is resourceful at converting turnovers into opportunities, Estudiantes could make the most of their first finals appearance since 1971.

Richard Farley is a U.S.-based contributor to World Soccer Reader, focusing on the English Premier League and Spain’s La Liga. He also hosts WSR Radio, the site’s regular podcast. He can be reached at richardfarley at gmail dot com and followed on Twitter, username “richardfarley.” Richard also hosts a regular (if informal) podcast at pointoneohradio.com.

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