In African World Cup Qualifying, there is a thin margin for error. With only six qualifying matches in the final stage (five groups, four teams each, only first place goes to the World Cup), you have room for one mistake. If you drop points unexpectedly, you will get a reverse fixture to try and reclaim them. If you drop points a second time (especially if it’s to the same team), you are done. There just aren’t enough qualifiers to make up that gap, and unlike in every other (non-Oceania) region, there is no recourse for finishing second.

Two of Africa’s five groups have been settled. Ghana won Group D during the last break, and the only way Cote d’Iviore does not qualify out of Group E is if Burkina Faso pulls out off of the greatest goal differential turn-arounds in the history of the sport. When Cote d’Iviore joins Ghana in South Africa, both nations will deserve consideration as potential World Champions.

Cameroon celebrates a victory over Gabon.

Cameroon is the other African nation that deserves such consideration.

When followers of international football think of Cameroon, they think Samuel Eto’o. And rightfully so. As automatic as the Internazionale striker is at the club level, he is an even greater factor for the national team.

That performance tends to overshadow the rest of a deep, talented Indomitable Lion team. All of their players are in Europe, at good clubs, and (for the most part) playing major roles.

Cameroon has a one point lead at the top of Group A. They took the group’s lead after gaining six points in last break’s home-and-home with Gabon.

On Saturday, they host Emmanuel Adebayor and Togo, a team that is about four years behind Cameroon in their development cycle. The Togolese could play a conservative match and try to generate a scenario where Adebayor can be decisive, but given the focus with which Cameroon approached their matches against Gabon, Paul Le Guen’s third qualifier as Lion’s chief is likely to be successful.

Nigeria's Peter Odemwingie and teammates need help to qualify for South Africa

In Group B, Tunisia leads Nigeria by two points, having pulled out a miraculous draw in Abuja on September 6 (one of the best matches of the international break). Tunisia is done with the Super Eagles and need only close out their campaign against the group’s bottom half in order to punch their ticket to South Africa. With a win on Sunday against Kenya, they could be qualified by the end of the weekend (if Nigeria doesn’t win against Mozambique, a team they only earned a draw against earlier in qualifying).

Group C is the final group in question, and nothing is likely to be decided this weekend. Algeria leads Egypt by three points and hosts fourth-place Rwanda on Sunday, a likely win.

Karim Ziani and Algeria are on track for their first World Cup since 1986.

On Saturday, Egypt goes to Zambia, a team that got a point in Cairo in Round 1. If Egypt does not get three points in the reverse fixture, Algeria will qualify by beating Rwanda. If Egypt wins, they set up a show-down with Algeria in Cairo on November 14.

Even if the Pharaohs were to defeat the Algerians, they would have to make up a three goal deficit in differential over these last two rounds. Look for both Algeria and Egypt to show little mercy as the first tiebreaker starts to become a factor in each side’s approach.

Whether they survive the weekend, both Nigeria and Egypt are in danger of missing out on South Africa. Egypt, the two-time defending confederation champions, have only made two World Cups, their last appearance coming in 1990. While it is a bit of a mystery why such a talented team has failed to show better in qualifying, this is not a new phenomenon.

Nigeria missed Germany after qualifying for the preceding three tournaments (making it out of group stage twice) but, without another match against Tunisia, they look destined to miss consecutive finals, a result that should be unacceptable to a country with the talent and size of Nigeria.

Richard Farley is a U.S.-based contributor to World Soccer Reader. He also hosts Inside the Six, the site’s regular podcast. He can be reached at richardfarley at gmail dot com and followed on Twitter, username “richardfarley.” And while you are at it, feel free to check out RF Football.

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