CONMEBOL has been the focus of football’s international intrigue thanks to the poorly-scripted reality show that is Diego Maradona, but given Argentina hosts Peru on Saturday – a team with two wins in sixteen qualifying matches – there’s an axiom referencing a cart and horse that fits here (I just don’t want to use the axiom).

Argentina, playing in Buenos Aires on Saturday, is going to beat Peru and put pressure on Uruguay, Venezuela, and Colombia – the three teams chasing the Albicelestes for CONMEBOL’s playoff spot.

Uruguay (sixth place) was on course for a Round 18, decisive match with Argentina (in Montevideo). Then the Sky Blues opened the last qualifying week by losing to Peru in Lima. Now, Uruguay must get a result in Quito against Ecuador or be eliminated if Argentina beats Peru.

Whenever a team goes to Ecuador, the story always centers on altitude. Quito sits at over 2,500 meters above sea level. In contrast, the Centenario in Montevideo sits about 23 meters high. If the rest of the region has struggled in Quito, where Ecuador has not lost since October 2007, Uruguay stands to have particular problems.

Of recourse to the Uruguayans: They have the best striking duo in the region. With apologies to Luis Fabiano and Robinho, Lionel Messi and whomever Maradona plays with him, Uguguay’s Diego Forlán and Luis Suárez present the greatest challenge to an opposing back line. Iván Hurtado, with 163 caps and 35 years on his chronometer, may have to keep Ecuador’s back line better organized that they were during the last two rounds.

Even if he does not, there is a good chance the athletic, physical Ecuadorians will wear down the Uruguayans the same way they’ve drained most visitors to the Estadio Olimpico. The style of play of Antonio Valencia, Christian Benítez, Edison Méndez, Walter Ayoví, Segundo Castillo, and Felipe Caicedo only augments Ecuador’s altitude advantage.

Expect the home team to win and clinch a spot in the top five. In the process, they should eliminate Uruguay (again, assuming an Argentina win), completely changing the complexion of Wednesday’s match in Montevideo.

The two teams that can keep Argentina from also securing a spot in the top five are Venezuela (7th place, one point behind Argentina) and Colombia (8th place, two points back). The Columbians, hosting Chile, have been fortunate to stay alive this long, seeing both of their opponents in the last qualifying week hampered by dismissals. Colombia’s luck has not been all good, though, as midfielder Fabían Vargas suffered an ankle injury against Ecuador (Round 15) that will keep him off the pitch for the next year.

Chile needs only one point to be guaranteed a top five finish, and a win will punch their ticket to the show. They posted a 4-0 win over the Colombians in Santiago (one year ago) and are the better team. Colombia’s surprise win over Ecuador on September 5 may have given the team momentary hope, but ultimately, they are not good enough.

The upstart Venezuelans are the last team that can claim a top five spot, something that seemed impossible at the beginning of the last qualifying week. Thanks to a surprise point at Chile and the expected three points against Peru (as well as some lackluster play from the teams above them), Venezuela now has a chance at their first ever World Cup appearance. They are the only South American nation to never make the finals, something they may be able to remedy with wins against Paraguay and Brazil.

Needing results against the tournament’s top two teams sounds ambitious until you note that both Brazil and Paraguay have already qualified for South Africa, and while manager Gerado Martino has said Paraguay will play to win, Venezuela will still be expected to pick up three points at home.

Venezuela is a nation that has had a lot of young talent coming through their program, and with nine of the players they’ve used in the last year being 21 years of age or younger, their estimated time of arrival was the 2014 qualifying cycle. But with teams like Argentina and Uruguay stumbling, Venezuela can qualify four years early.

They will need help, as all of Chile, Ecuador and Argentina control their own destiny. If Venezuela can get six points against the region’s top two performers, they will at least force Ecuador and Argentina to get all their points. Odds are one will slip.

If you enjoyed this post, make sure you subscribe to our RSS feed!