The first leg’s lack of goals, control, or a win from Estudiantes has spawned a trepidatious furor in Argentina. While it’s become accepted that a 0-0 opener favors the result’s road team, Estudiantes could be in a far worse situation. If they after behind at all, it’s not by much.

We’re accustomed to a 0-0 draw at home being a setback in a two-legged tie, but Copa Libertadores sets that paradigm on its ear by ditching the away goal rules in its final. At every other level of the knockout stage, away goals is used. Moving away from it at the final brings a confusion that might be influencing this paranoia, a confusion from which I am not immuned. Even though I’ve been avidly following this tournament, I forgot about this change during the Libertadores segment of this weekend’s podcast.

Because there is no away goals rule, the circumstances of Estudiantes and Cruzeiro barely changed from last week’s match. Estudiantes may have to make-up a slight deficit in circumstances, but that was the case before last week’s kickoff. Cruzeiro won the group the clubs shared, was the higher seed in the knockout phase, and has performed more convincingly against better competition over the last two months. Cruzeiro should have always been favored, if only slightly.

Argentina’s coverage of Estudiantes’ perceived deficit has gone from perplexed disappointment (in the days after the match) to a seeming bolstering of egos in the days before today’s fixture. An article widely distributed in the Argentine media last Wednesday night noted that Estudiantes, without control of the match or goals, was now full of doubts, seeming hyperbole given the match ended in a draw. In recent days, the same media has been quick to pick up and amplify seemingly innocuous quotes from Cruzeiro personnel describing Estudiantes as a dangerous and capable opponent – the type of quotes that are practically obligatory in these situations.

These reactions are disproportionate but understandable, for a number of reasons:

History

Estudiantes has not been to the final of the Copa Lib since 1971. Back then they lost to Uruguay’s Nacíonal in their effort to retain the tournament’s title for a fourth straight season. That loss ended an era and caused a relative drought that extended for thirty-five years. In that time, they won Argentina’s national tournament, a competition staged twice per annum, only twice times.

That span of relative futility has ended with the return of Juan Sebastián Verón, whose return to Argentina and Estudiantes in 2006 led to an Apertura title, the clubs first tournament title in 23 seasons. Estudiantes has two other top three finishes since the title, further wetting the appetites of supporters for more titles.

High Expectations

Beyond history and the recent turn in fortunes, the talent on the squad has lead to high expectations. Juan Sebastián Verón is considered by many to be the second best player on the continent (behind Riquelme). Attacking midfielder Leandro Benitez arrived with Verón and has been has attacking counterpart in midfielder during this period of resurgence. They support Mauro Boselli, a 24-year-old striker who came from Boca last season and has come into own through this tournament. At the back, Leandro Desabato maintains a strong back line in front of Mariano Andújar, who has all the tools to be a world-class keeper.

Impending Exodus

Andújar is already signed to move to Catania after the tournament, where he will ply his trade in the Serie A. He won’t be the only pincha to leave. Both Benitez and Boselli have been linked with jumps to Europe. Combined with Verón’s climbing age (he turned 34 in March), this may be Estudiantes best chance to regain the Copa before having to reload.

Previous Result

Estudiantes routed Cruzeiro in La Plata during group play, and while they were similarly routed in Belo Horizonte in the preceding, reverse fixture, getting only a 0-0 draw last Wednesday is caused worry. You can’t help but wonder if the other team has your number when they can flip a switch and get their desired result. Question Cruzeiro’s desire for a draw, but don’t question their ability to get it. Estudiantes should be concerned that they were not able to accomplish their goal while Cruzeiro accomplished theirs.

Argentina versus Brazil

Do not forget that Estudiantes and Cruzeiro represent the continent’s two dominant national powers, between whom there is a volatile dynamic. Argentina is home for possibly the best active player (Lionel Messi), the game’s best player of all-time (Maradona) and has won eight more Copa Libertadores than Brazil, yet Argentina still rests in the relative international shadow of Brazil. Such is the power of World Cup success and good marketing. Pele overshadows Maradona, Kaka’s image may still be more commercially viable than Messi’s, and Estudiantes just ceded the advantage in Copa Lib to some Brazilians.

You can’t blame Argentines for being a bit tired of this storyline, especially with a critical World Cup qualifier against the Selecão coming next month.

For all the reasons why Estudiantes and their supporters are particularly anxious about tonight’s match, there is an assumption that bears further examination. That assumption: Estudiantes, in a 0-0 tie going into tonight’s match, is in a relatively bad position. The history of this competition disagrees with that assumption.

There have been eleven instances in Copa Libertadores finals where the first leg ended 0-0. In five of those instances, the team that played the first match at home won the title. That’s just below fifty percent, and keeping in mind that nature of the competition gives the home pitch advantage to the team that performed better throughout the tournament, it’s an explicable result.

That sample of eleven matches is small, but if you look at the last five competitions and examine all knock-out stage ties (not just the finals), there are four times the second leg’s away side “overcame” a 0-0 opening draw to win the tie on the road. Again, that’s just under half the time.

Perhaps there is some 0-0, away team bogey there, but a more likely explanation is that the better team is winning these ties, and the home team happens to be the better team half (or a little more than half) the time. If Estudiantes is the better team, they can overcome this setback. If they are not, they don’t deserve to.

The best way Estudiantes can go about proving their superiority is by maintaining their shape at the back. Estudiantes has allowed only one goal in their last seven Libertadores matches thanks to the back line’s a high degree of organization. This was evident last week as Leandro Desabato and Rolando Schiavi could not be drawn out of the back by Kléber’s dropping back or Ramires coming in from the wing. If Cruzeiro does not provide more pressure, Estudiantes will be able to maintain this organization indefinitely.

Based on Cruzeiro’s approach to last week’s match, we can assume they will be more ambitious tonight. The Brazilians exhibited a lack of urgency endemic to the first leg’s road team. Returning home to the Belo Horizonte, Cruzeiro will give Estudiantes’ defense their staunchest test since February, when the pinchas lost 3-0 at Minierão. Tactically, Cruzeiro may need to bring Wagner back to the middle and rely on Ramires for their width, but even if their tactics are unchanged, Raposa change of attitude is likely to test Estudiantes.

Cruzeiro had scored two or more goals in five of their six knockout stage matches before last week. Although shutting them out in a second consecutive match is possible, Estudiantes has to anticipate needing a goal. This will make Juan Sebastian Verón, their most renown player, also their most important. Verón, the club’s captain, will not only need to be a strong presence in front of the center backs (along with Rodrigo Braña), his distribution to Benitez, Enzo Perez and Gaston Fernandez will determine how capable Estudiantes will be in taking advantage of Cruzeiro’s ambition.

Their is little from last week’s match in La Plata that leads us to think Estudiantes’ attack will be more successful than they were last week. Fabio did have a good match in net for Cruzeiro, but Estudiantes does not have Raposa’s skill in the finish. That may be augmented by tactics, as Cruzeiro is likely to open up their approach. That could lead to more opportunities for Estudiantes off the counter, the type of opportunities they did not have to generate a week ago. With their defense, Estudiantes may need only one goal, so if they can take advantage of Cruzeiro’s backs pushing forward, they could generate opportunities up the wing (through Benitez) a get the critical opening goal what will allow them to bunker down.

That path to the title is a lot thinner than Cruzeiro’s, who need only play to their capabilities. If the home side uses the creativity of Kléber and Wagner to distribute wide from the middle, they can stretch Estudiantes’ form at the back and generate opportunities. It’s not an approach that’s likely to have a high success rate, but it will pin Estudiantes deep as midfielders are forced into reinforcing the middle against crosses. That will prevent Estudiantes from breaking out, give Cruzeiro more possession, and increase the likelihood of one of their attacks eventually getting through Andújar.

Given Cruzeiro were able to accomplish their goals last week, they should be considered favorites to do the same tonight, where their goal will be to win, not draw.

Richard Farley is a U.S.-based contributor to World Soccer Reader, focusing on the English Premier League and Spain’s La Liga. He also hosts WSR Radio, the site’s regular podcast. He can be reached at richardfarley at gmail dot com and followed on Twitter, username “richardfarley.” Richard also hosts a regular (if informal) podcast at pointoneohradio.com.

Unfortunately, the biggest news leading up to this tie has been another H1N1 threat. Argentina has recently been hit by an H1N1 outbreak that has claimed 44 lives. This caused Cruzeiro to express reservations about traveling to La Plata for tonight’s opening leg. The Brazilian side requested a postponement or relocation. On Monday, it was announced Cruzeiro’s request had been rejected. The first leg goes on as scheduled, but the match has been overshadowed by the reservations of Cruzeiro’s player about traveling to Argentina during the outbreak. Whether the concerns are warranted, they have unfortunately but only temporarily distracted from the culmination of a great tournament.

Last season’s final featured Brazilian’s Fluminense against Ecuador’s LDU Quito. At the time the stories of Fluminense’s Thiago Neves and Ecaudor possibly winning the country’s first continental club title helped inject the necessary majesty into the tournament. In hindsight, however, last year’s competition seems anti-climactic. LDU eventually won on penalty kicks and took the Copa back to Quito while Flu would struggle in form all year, helping hindsight revise our view of the final.

This year features a traditional Brazil-Argentina match-up. An Argentine club has won this competition nineteen times. Brazilian clubs have thirteen championships to their credit. As would be expected, these countries are the dominant presences in the continent’s club football. This year’s final has that rivalry’s added drama augmenting a match already rife with stories.

Unlike Copa Libertadores’ analog competition in Europe, this final’s to be settled over two legs. Tonight’s match in La Plata sees Estudiantes de la Plata host Brazil’s Cruzeiro. Estudiantes got here by defeating Urugayan champions Nacíonal 3-1 in one semifinal. Cruziero eliminated fellow Brazilian-side Grêmio, going up 5-1 before ultimately registering a 5-3 aggregate victory.

The match features teams who were drawn together in the competition’s group stage. After next week’s second leg in Belo Horizonte, Estudiantes and Cruzeiro will have played four times in the Copa. Cruzeiro hosted Estudiantes to open the the club’s group stage, winning 3-0 at the Estádio Uníco in February thanks to two goals from star forward Kléber. April’s second leg in La Plata saw Estudiantes one-up their guest with a 4-0 victory. Matías Sánchez scored twice, with captain and figurehead Juan Sebástian Verón also posting a goal.

Because Estudiantes stumbled within group play to Deportivo Quito (who finished third the group), Cruziero would go on to win Group 5 and gain the higher seed in the 16-team knockout phase. For Estudiantes, a team that barely qualified for the tournament, advancing was enough. They were the last of five teams to qualify from Argentina, getting the counrty’s last birth based on their average performance in the three preceding Argentine seasons. That birth did not get them into the tournament proper. To advance, they would have to defeat Peru’s Sporting Cristal in a two-legged preliminary tie. Estudiantes lost the first leg 2-1 in Lima but went through on away goals after winning 1-0 in La Plata.

Close calls in the preliminary round and group stage were offset by an easy knockout stage draw. There are exceptions to this rule, but if you can avoid being drawn against the Brazilian and Argentine clubs, you have half of your tournament’s plan for success. Thanks to their strong goal differential in Group 5, Estudiantes were seeded a tenth out of the sixteen teams that advanced from group play (teams were seeded by group finish, points, then goal differential).

That seed matched Estudiantes with Libertad of Paraguay in the Round of 16. Estudiantes took the steam out of that tie with a 3-0 win in the first leg. A scoreless second leg sent them through to the quarters, where they matched-up against Uruguay’s Defensor. Defensor was coming off the upset of the tournament, having eliminated Argentine powerhouse and Boca Juniors in the previous round. Two 1-0 wins over the fifteenth seed put Estudiantes into the semis.

Cruzeiro earned the bracket’s fifth seed out of group stage yet had the tougher knockout route. Grêmio was the tournament’s top seed and had not lost in ten Copa matches before facing Cruzeiro. In the quarters, Cruzeiro similarly dominated São Paulo, the three-time defending Serie A champions from Brazil. In the round of 16, Cruzeiro beat Universidad de Chile, who were this week crowned Chilean Apertura champions. As impressive as the route Cruzeiro took to get to the final is the way in which they traveled. Only once in their six knockout stage matches have they been held under two goals (the second leg against Universidad).

Though he has only two of those knockout stage goals (which number 12 in all), Cruzeiro’s most dangerous player is Kléber. The former Dynamo Kiev star returned to Brazil last year on a season long loan to Palmeiras. He made a permanent move to Cruzeiro before this season and has been central to the uptick in Raposa’s form that has seen them build a seven match win streak within Copa. Kléber is ostensibly the second striker to Wellington Paulista’s more traditional number nine but is often found coming deep into midfield to help link between Paulista and Cruzeiro’s other star, midfielder Wagner.

Matching up with that attack, Estudiantes’ strength lies in defense. They limited Nacíonal to only one solid chance over the 180 minute semifinal. The goal, a consolation tally conceded after Estudiantes had a 2-0 aggregate lead (and a road goals advantage) in the second half of the final leg, was the first the Argentine club had allowed in the knockout stage. For the tournament, they have allowed only five goals in twelve matches.

Leandro Desábato, who took Verón’s armband when the captain could not play the semifinals’ second leg in Montevideo, leads the defense from his center back spot. Verón’s role distributing from deep, helping to link from a defensive zone from which Cruzeiro will likely control the match, will be critical, but although the former Manchester United and Chelsea midfielder will gets more press, his role in this tie is less important than Desábato’s. For an Estudiantes defense that has remained remarkably organized throughout the tournament, Desábato is the leader. The thirty-year-old veteran (in his second tour of duty and eighth year with Estudiantes) provides a physical presence to a back line that will again be tested by the Brazilians. Of the five goals they have allowed in the tournament, Cruzeiro scored three in one match.

The biggest star at the back for Estudiantes is Mariano Andújar. The 25-year-old goaltender was recently recalled to the Argentine national team, starting the last two World Cup qualifiers, performing admirably for an uninspiring squad. After this tournament, Andújar will be moving to Italy’s Serie A, where he has signed a four-year deal for Catania. At 6′ 4″ but with the wingspan or a man three inches taller, Andújar can cover goal at a world-class level. In his decisions you see somebody who lacks the finishing top-level experience provides. To this point in the tournament, Andújar has been more than capable of overcoming that deficiency. In his World Cup qualifying experience and in this final, he will start gathering the experience he’s been lacking.

If Desábato can maintain Estudiantes’ organization, he will limit the need for Andújar to dominate. However, it may be too great a task to ask Estudiantes’ back line to completely shut down the potent Cruzeiro attack. It is also reasonable to expect Andújar to steal the show (although it could happen). Estudiantes shut out Cruzeiro the last time the Brazilians came to La Plata, but with Cruzeiro playing better football now than they did months ago, Estudiantes must plan on getting two, three goals over these two legs if they are to win. Regardless, look for Estudiantes to play conservative and look for Verón to break them out into attack.

That is where Mauro Boselli comes in. Boselli is the lead striker for Estudiantes and the tournament’s leading goal scorer. With his two goals in Montevideo to close out Nacíonal, Boselli is up to six goals in the competition. Resourceful and efficient, he is more than capable of getting two goals during the final; however, it is key that Estudiantes find him rather than settling for half-changes through supporting attackers. Second striker Gastón Fernández was wasteful in many opportunities against Nacíonal and was the reason why that tie was in a small amount of doubt midway through the second leg’s second half. Estudiantes staying organized at the back and getting strong distribution from Verón to Boselli and attacking midfielder Leandro Benítez could overcome such wastefulness.

That scenario and the group stage results not withstanding, Cruzeiro is the favorite. The addition of Kléber to the attack has provided a perfect complement to Wagner. Each do a great job of both distributing the ball wide and creating through the middle while playing at distinct levels of the attack. This ability to distribute and the various depths from which they can build their attacks, could force Estudiantes to break their line, creating space for Wellington.

If that happens, it is difficult to imagine Estudiantes winning the final; however, if Desábato leads a strong back line and Verón is resourceful at converting turnovers into opportunities, Estudiantes could make the most of their first finals appearance since 1971.

Richard Farley is a U.S.-based contributor to World Soccer Reader, focusing on the English Premier League and Spain’s La Liga. He also hosts WSR Radio, the site’s regular podcast. He can be reached at richardfarley at gmail dot com and followed on Twitter, username “richardfarley.” Richard also hosts a regular (if informal) podcast at pointoneohradio.com.